Projections involving iPads in 2011 must also take into account that the product will be rev’d as soon as the first of the year. This has a couple of important implications. First is feature set. It’s probably a good bet that the next ver. of iPad will have a front facing camera and facetime integration. That’s probably the most significant upgrade (other than iOS 4.2). Other features will likely include more memory and higher storage capacities. Perhaps less likely in the next rev. but more likely in rev 3 will be faster processor, retina display, motion sensors and features we haven’t yet thought of. Second, as Apple builds the iPad into a product family like the iPod, you’ll most certainly see a price decrease in the current models of from $50-$100 lowering the price of entry to $399 from it’s current $499 entry point. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to eventually see an entry level iPad priced as low as $299 retail within the next 12 to 18 months. At those price points, and the move by most hardware vendors to push into this market, one wonders what the netbook market will look like at that time. My guess is that it will be largely gone as the performance curve for tablets pushes upward.
Thoughts on the iPad Market
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